Anecdote of the day: A week or so ago one of my roommates was babysitting her two young nephews. After putting them to bed, she decided to watch the RiffTrax for New Moon. During one of the scenes, Bella is cornered by one of the "bad" vampires and wonders what she should do. Her mental Edward-voice tells her to lie and the RiffTrax guys immediately suggest that Bella should say "the Royals are having a good season this year!" Honestly, when my roommate told me this--knowing I'm a huge Royals fan--I laughed. It's a bit sad, really, but also hilarious that the Royals' reputation of futility has even spread into pop-culture phenomenon.
But you know what? It's all coming together. Slowly, but surely. Finally.
I've been a fan of the Kansas City Royals for thirteen years now, and when I say "fan" I mean I made it my business to know absolutely everything to do with the Royals since I was ten years old. During that time, the Royals have had one winning season--a fun, but fluky 2003--and in fact the next above-.500 season before that was 1994, the strike-shortened year. (Actually, that's the first year I remember being interested in the Royals. I must have gone to a game before then because I remember I wanted to go to a game on my birthday, but we couldn't because of the strike. I was just 7 and didn't understand what the strike was all about, but thought it was dumb.) So the whole time I've been a fan I've endured terrible major league teams, innumerable losses, a barren wasteland of a minor league system for the most part, and even when we had good players they didn't want to stay and we couldn't afford them, thus we traded them for players that ended up amounting to nothing (the notable exception to that was the $55 million dollar five-year contract we gave to Mike Sweeney in 2001, who is still in baseball, but has been plagued by back injuries basically since then).
It hasn't been easy, but I have and always will love the Royals. However, things are looking up. In 2006, Dayton Moore was hired as the new GM of the Royals, and while opinions vary on him quite a bit, you have to give him a ton of credit for the way he's turned the minor league system around. Back then, we had maybe one or two players in the whole system that you could have interest in eventually contributing to the major league team--not the way to develop a winner on a small market team like the Royals. Now, we have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. We have brought in a bunch of key scouting/development personnel, we've drafted well and allocated the money we do have to the draft, and we've had a much larger international presence as well, Here is a list of our top prospects (in no particular order, it's actually hard to rank these guys on a who's better than who basis in my opinion) and their current--as of July 2010--status among knowledgeable baseball people/scouts/organizations:
3B Mike Moustakas -- ranked #6 minor league prospect recently by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, ranked #12 minor league prospect by Baseball America
1B Eric Hosmer -- just missed the top ten minor league prospects list by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, ranked #13 minor league prospect by Baseball America
LHP John Lamb -- just missed the top ten minor league prospects list by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Ben Badler of Baseball America considers him and Julio Teheran of the Braves' system to be the top two in the running for BA's player of the year, he is ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's Hot Sheet, ranked in the #26-50 minor league prospect range by Baseball America, John Sickels on him: "totally legit" and "a candidate for Top 20 pitching slot by the end of the year."
LHP Mike Montgomery -- has minor elbow soreness currently or would be in top ten minor league prospects according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, ranked #18 minor league prospect by Baseball America
C Wil Myers -- just missed the top ten minor league prospects list by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, ranked in the #26-50 minor league prospect range by Baseball America, John Sickels on him: "could be Top 20 prospect by end of the year." (There's been a ton of praise given to him that I've heard just over the last week or two, so he's really opening eyes.)
Roughly speaking, this translates to saying that within the top 30 or so minor league players, the Royals have five of them--about 17%--which doesn't happen too often unless the general consensus among baseball people is that your farm system is, in a word, "loaded." Pretty impressive. And that's not to mention the several other very good-to-good prospects the Royals have, including LHP Chris Dwyer, LHP Danny Duffy, SS Christian Colon, OF Kila Ka'aihue (now in the majors), 3B/OF Alex Gordon (also now in the majors), RHP Tim Melville, CF Derrick Robinson, RHP Aaron Crow, 2B Johnny Giavotella, C Lucas May, C Manny Pina, OF David Lough, OF Paulo Orlando, and relief pitchers Tim Collins(LH), Louis Coleman(RH), Greg Holland (RH, now in the majors), Blaine Hardy(LH), and Kevin Chpman(LH). There is also some just-as-good talent in the lower minors, but at the moment I'm focusing on the players that will reach the major league team in the next couple years (all the above players are at the advanced-A level or above).
Just to back up my premise, here are the type of seasons some of these guys are having for their respective teams, statistic-wise:
(Abbreviation Key: G=games, AB=at-bats, BA=batting average (hits/at bats), OBP=on-base percentage (hits+walks+hit by pitches/at bats+walks+hit by pitches), SLG=slugging percentage (total bases/at bats), OPS=on-base plus slugging (OBP+SLG), 2B=doubles, 3B=triples, HR=home runs, BB=walks, K=strikeouts, W-L=wins-losses, ERA=earned run average (earned runs x 9/innings pitched), R=runs, ER=earned runs, IP=innings pitched, H=hits)
AAA Omaha:
Mike Moustakas: Age: 21
AA NW Arkansas: 66 G. 259 AB, .347 BA/.413 OBP/.687 SLG/1.100 OPS, 25 2B, 21 HR, 26/42 BB/K
AAA Omaha: 25 G, 106 AB, .245/.257/.434/.691, 5 2B, 5 HR, 2/12 BB/K
Notes: Dominated AA, is making the adjustment to AAA after a recent promotion.
Kila Ka'aihue: Age: 26
AAA Omaha: 94 G, 323 AB, .319/.463/.598/1.060, 16 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 88/69 BB/K
Notes: Wow.
Alex Gordon: Age:26
AAA Omaha: 68 G, 260 AB, .315/.442/.577/1.019, 20 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 51/72 BB.K
Notes: Wow v. 2.0.
Lucas May: Age:25
AAA Albuquerque: 73 G, 230 AB, .296/.352/.496/.848, 13 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 22/60 BB/K
AAA Omaha: 6 G, 23 AB, .261/.333/.696/1.029, 1 2B, 3 HR, 3/6 BB/K
Notes: Recently acquired by the Royals. Lookin' good so far.
Tim Collins: Age:20
AA New Hampshire: 35 G, 43.0 IP, 27 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 16 BB, 73 K, 1-0 W-L, 2.51 ERA
AA Mississippi: 6 G, 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 B, 14 K, 0-0 W-L, 1.13 ERA
AAA Omaha: 3G G, 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0-0 W-L, 0.00 ERA
Notes: Recently acquired by the Royals. Excellent so far. One of my new favorite Royals simply because he's left-handed, and listed as 5'7'' and 155 lbs., but I've heard that he is actually closer to 5'5'' and 140 lbs.. I've never heard of a baseball player of that size!
Louis Coleman: Age: 24
AA NW Arkansas: 21 G, 51.2 IP, 31 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 14 BB, 55 K, 2-1 W-L, 2.09 ERA
AAA Omaha: 12 G, 22.1 IP, 18 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 25 K, 3-1 W-L, 2.82 ERA
Blaine Hardy: Age: 23
AA NW Arkansas: 12 G, 26.0 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 8 BB, 16 K, 1-0 W-L, 0.69 ERA
AAA Omaha: 22 G, 38.2 IP, 31 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 11 BB, 35 K, 2-3 W-L, 2.09 ERA
AA NW Arkansas:
Eric Hosmer: Age: 20
A+ Wilmington: 87 G, 325 AB, .354/.429/.545/.974, 29 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 44/39 BB/K
AA NW Arkansas: 23 G, 86 AB, .302/.355/.640/.994, 5 2B, 8HR, 6/11 BB/K
Notes: Amazing single A numbers. Recently promoted, making a fairly good adjustment to AA.
Johnny Giavotella: Age:23
AA NW Arkansas: 107 G, 410 AB, .305/,382./.420/.802, 25 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 48/53 BB/K
Derrick Robinson: Age: 22
AA NW Arkansas: 107 G, 426 AB, .289/.359/.383/.733, 20 2B, 7 3B, 2 HR, 39/76 BB/K
Notes: Lots of raw talent, starting to put it together this year. Also has 44 steals to 15 caught stealings.
Paulo Orlando: Age: 24
AA NW Arkansas: 96 G, 322 AB, .314/.378/.472/.850, 18 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 20/52 BB/K
Mike Montgomery: Age: 21
A+ Wilmington; 4 G, 24.2 IP, 14 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 33 K, 2-0 W-L, 1.09 ERA
AA NW Arkansas: 7 G, 32.2 IP, 27 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 12 BB, 30 K, 3-1 W-L, 2.76 ERA
Notes: He was hurt for June and half of July, and has been doing well in his last couple starts building his pitch count back up.
John Lamb: Age: 20
A- Burlington: 8 G, 40.0 IP, 26 H, 12 R, 7 ER, 17 BB, 43 K, 2-3 W-L, 1,58 ERA
A+ Wilmington: 13 G, 74.2 IP, 59 H, 16 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 90 K, 6-3 W-L, 1.45 ERA
AA NW Arkansas: 1 G, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0-1 W-L, 5.40 ERA
Notes: Just barely promoted to AA, he has pitched lights out at his two previous levels. This is his second promotion of the season and he just barely turned 20! I'm very excited to see how he pitches the rest of the way.
Chris Dwyer: Age: 22
A+ Wilmington: 15 G, 84.1 IP, 79 H, 36 R, 28 ER, 33 BB, 93 K, 6-3 W-L, 2.99 ERA
AA NW Arkansas: 4 G, 17.2 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 10 BB, 20 K, 3-1 W-L, 3.06 ERA
Notes/: Transitioning well to AA.
Danny Duffy: Age: 21
Arizona Royals: 2 G, 2.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0-0 W-L, 3.38 ERA
Idaho Falls Royals: 2 G, 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 0-1 W-L, 1.50 ERA
A+ Wilmington: 3 G, 14.0 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 7 BB, 18 K, 0-0 W-L, 2.57 ERA
AA NW Arkansas: 2 G, 11.0 IP, 14 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 14 K, 0-1 W-L, 4.09 ERA
Notes: Duffy didn't play the first three months, and so has been building up his pitch count and innings slowly over the last month, but is coming on strong.
A+ Wilmington::
Wil Myers: Age: 19
A- Burlington: 68 G, 242 AB, .289/.408/.500/.908, 19 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 48/55 BB/K
A+ Wilmington: 32 G, 108 AB, .389/.492/.500/.992, 10 2B, 1 3B, 19/18 BB/K
Notes: Myers will probably move to the OF from C sometime in the not-too-distant future, which will be more than fine with his bat. His numbers in high A are astounding considering that the Carolina league that Wilmington is in is a definitive pitchers' league and Wil is just 19, one of the youngest kids in the league.
SS Christian Colon: Age: 21
A+ Wilmington: 35 G, 141 AB, .241/.299/.348/.646, 7 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7/21 BB/K
Notes: Colon was just drafted this year and started off very slowly, but is coming along nicely as of late.
Not all of these guys are going to make it, to be sure. However, at this point in time, they are all progressing in a very positive way, and that has me excited.
So to wrap this up, where are the Royals at right now? Well, this season is over in a competitive sense, but not at all close to finished looking at it from an evaluation viewpoint. Over the last few weeks the Royals have traded away Alberto Callaspo, Scott Podsednik, Kyle Farmsworth, and Rick Ankiel, and designated for assignment Jose Guillen. These were all players that did not factor into the Royals' longterm plans. They have started to play Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon, Chris Getz, Mitch Maier, and Gregor Blanco in everyday fashion. The Royals are probably not going to win very much over the next two months, but they are going to start figuring out the answers to these questions:
Can Ka'aihue and Gordon translate their minor league success into major league production and be able to anchor the lineup with Billy Butler?
Who are we looking at for our CF next year? Blanco or Maier?
Can Chris Getz be a solid second baseman?
How strong is the relief corps with Chavez, Wood, Holland, Huges, Texeira, and Soria?
Who beside Greinke is going to solidify their spot in the rotation next season of Hochaver, Chen, Davies, and O'Sullivan?
What do the Royals have with Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles?
Will Jason Kendall actually catch 95% of games? (OK, that's not a real evaluation question, but c'mon! Kendall has played 102 of the 109 games so far, meaning he's on pace to catch 153 games. No catcher does that! Dude is like 36! Okay, okay, rant over.)
Anyway, next season will continue the evaluation process, but we will also see some of the other prospects start to be called up and implemented into the team as they are ready. And if most things go according to plan ('cause not everything will of course), then the Royals should have no trouble being a competitive team in 2012! I guess what I'm saying is that the rest of this season and parts of next season may not be exciting to watch the Royals from a casual baseball fan's standpoint, but it certainly will be if you're a vigilant Royals fan like me. So, here's my invitation to you: if you let me convert you to the Royals and give them your loyalty now, when they are a great baseball team just around the corner, you can say you saw it coming, too, and I won't call you a fair weather fan. Just let me know if you're interested and I can tell you aaaalllllllll about the boys in blue! After all, you're already a few steps closer if you took the time to read all of this!
A Final Note: I highly recommend you take a look at this article by another Royals fan blogger that really know his stuff. He addresses similar future-thoughts but in the context of a recent story that was published about Zack Greinke's thoughts and situation with the club and pretty much echoes my own thoughts on the matter.
